Will IK Sirius vs. Halmstads BK end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 92¢ · $277 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$276.86
-$6.9
87¢ → 92¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 83¢ | $165.99 | $183.99 | +$18 | 50% 27453-27352 (54805) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $74.92 | $70.77 | -$4.15 | 53% 59235-51541 (110776) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $39.41 | $20.16 | -$19.25 | 54% 1090-911 (2001) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $2.97 | $1.52 | -$1.45 | 53% 1052-943 (1995) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.47 | $0.42 | -$0.05 | 49% 14175-14774 (28949) |
Invested
$165.99
Value
$183.99
PnL
+$18
Record
50%
27453-27352 (54805)
RN1<$100Invested
$74.92
Value
$70.77
PnL
-$4.15
Record
53%
59235-51541 (110776)
Invested
$39.41
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$19.25
Record
54%
1090-911 (2001)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$1.45
Record
53%
1052-943 (1995)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
14175-14774 (28949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.