Orgryte IS vs. Mjallby AIF: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$1.5K
$793.42
29.8¢ → 69¢
+132% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 21.5¢ | $373.32 | $1.2K | +$823.05 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
 RN1 | Overavg 69.4¢ | $319.68 | $275.48 | -$44.19 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 29.2¢ | $7.41 | $18.04 | +$10.63 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $6.27 | $10.21 | +$3.94 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
Invested
$373.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$823.05
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
RN1Invested
$319.68
Value
$275.48
PnL
-$44.19
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.41
Value
$18.04
PnL
+$10.63
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.27
Value
$10.21
PnL
+$3.94
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.