Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Orgryte IS vs. Mjallby AIF: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.0K
$325.39
39¢ → 41¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $329.05 | $497.9 | +$168.85 | 51% 3908-3826 (7734) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 40.1¢ | $283.95 | $407.34 | +$123.39 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $34.8 | $50.03 | +$15.23 | 49% 1139-1176 (2315) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $27.01 | $39.82 | +$12.81 | 59% 9671-6655 (16326) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $12.71 | $17.83 | +$5.11 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
Invested
$329.05
Value
$497.9
PnL
+$168.85
Record
51%
3908-3826 (7734)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$283.95
Value
$407.34
PnL
+$123.39
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$50.03
PnL
+$15.23
Record
49%
1139-1176 (2315)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$27.01
Value
$39.82
PnL
+$12.81
Record
59%
9671-6655 (16326)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$17.83
PnL
+$5.11
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.