Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$71.52
92.9¢ → 99¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$13.76 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 88¢ | $674.08 | $771.99 | +$97.91 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 89¢ | $55.19 | $66 | +$14.13 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 89¢ | $38.35 | $38.63 | +$3.6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 6.4¢ | $16.83 | $27.37 | +$10.53 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 11.3¢ | $29.3 | $15.53 | -$13.77 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.5¢ | $3.5 | $6 | +$2.5 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 12.8¢ | $2.56 | $1.2 | -$1.36 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
Invested
$2,425.95
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$13.76
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$674.08
Value
$771.99
PnL
+$97.91
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$55.19
Value
$66
PnL
+$14.13
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$29.3
Value
$15.53
PnL
-$13.77
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.5
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$1.36
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.