Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 3.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 75¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 1

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$566.09

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 74.5¢

+32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares35,102

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,610

Combined PnL-$460.65

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 56.6¢	$13.0K	$14.0K	+$1.0K	49% 167-174 (341)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$739.47	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44.1¢	$661.92	$901.42	+$239.5	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$116.4	$157.39	+$40.99	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$49.91	$43.77	-$6.14	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$8.88	$13.32	+$4.44	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$6.94	$6.96	+$0.02	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 39¢	$3.51	$6.71	+$2.43	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
RN1<$100	Underavg 74¢	$3.98	$4.01	+$0.03	54% 57146-49404 (106550)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$13,010.8

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,098.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$739.47

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$661.92

Value

$901.42

PnL

+$239.5

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$116.4

Value

$157.39

PnL

+$40.99

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.91

Value

$43.77

PnL

-$6.14

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.88

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$4.44

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.94

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.51

Value

$6.71

PnL

+$2.43

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.