Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 54¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$185.32

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 53.5¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,224

Combined PnL-$185.32

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL+$0

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
sapupu	Overavg 63.8¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$239.32	56% 81-64 (145)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 37¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$184.9	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$810.88	$1.0K	+$208.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.3¢	$735.76	$712.09	-$23.67
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$51.16	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$813.68	$929.92	+$116.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.6¢	$716.49	$651.41	-$65.08
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 36¢	$674.68	$674.68	+$0	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
LA LaarsY	Overavg 55¢	$275	$320	+$45	51% 3435-3353 (6788)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 36¢	$252.29	$252.29	+$0	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 36¢	$216	$216	+$0	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$182.17	$180.5	-$1.66	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.1¢	$129.38	$119.08	-$10.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$52.79	$61.43	+$8.64
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$83.88	$83.88	+$0	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 55¢	$55	$64	+$9	48% 8942-9563 (18505)

sapupu

Over

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$239.32

Record

56%

81-64 (145)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,546.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$184.9

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Under$810.8837¢+$208.57

Over$735.7655.3¢-$23.67

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,530.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$51.16

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

Over$813.6856¢+$116.24

Under$716.4939.6¢-$65.08

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$674.68

Value

$674.68

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$275

Value

$320

PnL

+$45

Record

51%

3435-3353 (6788)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$252.29

Value

$252.29

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$216

Value

$216

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$182.17

Value

$180.5

PnL

-$1.66

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Both legs:

Under$129.3839.1¢-$10.3

Over$52.7955¢+$8.64

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.88

Value

$83.88

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$55

Value

$64

PnL

+$9

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.