Spread: Hammarby IF (-1.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Malmo FF (17%) · Malmo FF at 80¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Malmo FF
6
Malmo FF 17%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$43.83
Research grade
NeutralMalmo FF at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Malmo FFavg 71.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.5K | +$106.74 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
| └ Malmo FF leg | Malmo FFavg 71.6¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$15.31 | |
| └ Hammarby IF leg | Hammarby IFavg 10.3¢ | $220.17 | $620.27 | +$122.05 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Malmo FFavg 71.8¢ | $232.73 | $252.67 | +$19.95 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Hammarby IFavg 22.2¢ | $117.82 | $70.15 | -$47.67 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Hammarby IFavg 21¢ | $28.89 | $30.73 | +$1.84 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Hammarby IFavg 22¢ | $14.28 | $7.79 | -$6.49 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Hammarby IFavg 40¢ | $16 | $4.8 | -$11.2 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Hammarby IFavg 36.6¢ | $70.89 | $0.42 | -$0.26 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
Invested
$2,142.01
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$106.74
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Both legs:
Invested
$232.73
Value
$252.67
PnL
+$19.95
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$117.82
Value
$70.15
PnL
-$47.67
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$28.89
Value
$30.73
PnL
+$1.84
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.28
Value
$7.79
PnL
-$6.49
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$16
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$11.2
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70.89
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$0.26
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.