Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-11-01?
12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 76¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 92%
$4.9K
$1.4K
45.1¢ → 75.5¢
+67% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+26 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-Temp | Noavg 41¢ | $1.9K | $2.8K | +$927.5 | 51% 220-214 (434) |
 RN1 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $556.84 | $776.97 | +$220.13 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 42.6¢ | $248.23 | $324.92 | +$76.69 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 42¢ | $577.8 | $255.81 | +$70.12 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
FO foooool | Noavg 70.1¢ | $188.75 | $203.37 | +$14.62 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 64.2¢ | $160.33 | $188.68 | +$28.36 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $87.75 | $83.36 | -$4.39 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $41.5 | $75.5 | +$32 | 51% 6075-5796 (11871) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $48.61 | $70.6 | +$21.99 | 51% 506-477 (983) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $53.25 | $54.9 | +$1.65 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.47 | $7.75 | +$1.28 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $7.55 | +$1.15 | 51% 1526-1478 (3004) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $3.05 | +$0.95 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
Invested
$1,901.38
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$927.5
Record
51%
220-214 (434)
RN1Invested
$556.84
Value
$776.97
PnL
+$220.13
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$248.23
Value
$324.92
PnL
+$76.69
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
VeryLucky888Invested
$577.8
Value
$255.81
PnL
+$70.12
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$188.75
Value
$203.37
PnL
+$14.62
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$160.33
Value
$188.68
PnL
+$28.36
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$87.75
Value
$83.36
PnL
-$4.39
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$41.5
Value
$75.5
PnL
+$32
Record
51%
6075-5796 (11871)
Invested
$48.61
Value
$70.6
PnL
+$21.99
Record
51%
506-477 (983)
Invested
$53.25
Value
$54.9
PnL
+$1.65
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
poshposh<$100Invested
$6.47
Value
$7.75
PnL
+$1.28
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$1.15
Record
51%
1526-1478 (3004)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.95
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.