Will Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.7K
-$255.97
77.8¢ → 94.5¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 78¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$278.57 | 51% 1712-1674 (3386) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $70.13 | $77.42 | +$7.29 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $50 | $52.5 | +$2.5 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $33.81 | $33.81 | -$0.24 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $20.12 | $32.23 | +$12.11 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $8.23 | $8.91 | +$0.69 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $7.15 | $7 | -$0.15 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $6.38 | $6.79 | +$0.41 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
us391Invested
$2,716.05
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$278.57
Record
51%
1712-1674 (3386)
Invested
$70.13
Value
$77.42
PnL
+$7.29
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$50
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
RN1<$100Invested
$33.81
Value
$33.81
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.12
Value
$32.23
PnL
+$12.11
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$8.91
PnL
+$0.69
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$7
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$6.79
PnL
+$0.41
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.