Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF: Both Teams to Score

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 100¢ · $713 held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$713.25

Combined PnL

$28.26

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$583.44

Total Shares772

Combined PnL+$67.45

No2 traders

Total Value$129.81

Total Shares1,235

Combined PnL-$39.18

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 68¢	$258.15	$280.66	+$22.52	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 63¢	$223.61	$266.26	+$42.65	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 37.6¢	$164.38	$120.19	-$44.19	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$17.86	$18.99	+$1.13	74% 1680-593 (2273)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$10.2	$12.75	+$0.6	50% 7122-7165 (14287)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$4.62	$9.63	+$5.01	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 75.2¢	$4.52	$4.77	+$0.55	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$258.15

Value

$280.66

PnL

+$22.52

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$223.61

Value

$266.26

PnL

+$42.65

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$164.38

Value

$120.19

PnL

-$44.19

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.86

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$1.13

Record

74%

1680-593 (2273)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$5.01

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.