Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kalmar FF vs. GAIS: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.7K
-$4.31
50¢ → 49¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $980 | -$20 | 61% 3900-2449 (6349) |
 us391 | Overavg 50¢ | $636.48 | $649.21 | +$12.73 | 51% 1664-1611 (3275) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49.1¢ | $204.68 | $55.45 | +$2.77 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $19 | $18.62 | +$0.19 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$980
PnL
-$20
Record
61%
3900-2449 (6349)
us391Invested
$636.48
Value
$649.21
PnL
+$12.73
Record
51%
1664-1611 (3275)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$204.68
Value
$55.45
PnL
+$2.77
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$19
Value
$18.62
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.