Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$122.06
59.5¢ → 58.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 59.4¢ | $770.27 | $920.35 | +$150.08 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $119.77 | $84.62 | -$35.16 | 59% 2542-1763 (4305) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $206.69 | $28.4 | +$1.7 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $17.08 | $19.88 | +$2.8 | 58% 28254-20836 (49090) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.78 | $14.42 | +$2.64 | 54% 4826-4064 (8890) |
Invested
$770.27
Value
$920.35
PnL
+$150.08
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$119.77
Value
$84.62
PnL
-$35.16
Record
59%
2542-1763 (4305)
VeryLucky888Invested
$206.69
Value
$28.4
PnL
+$1.7
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$17.08
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$2.8
Record
58%
28254-20836 (49090)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$14.42
PnL
+$2.64
Record
54%
4826-4064 (8890)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.