Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
IFK Goteborg vs. Djurgardens IF: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.0K
$274.84
42.9¢ → 44.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-TempCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$235.76 | 50% 206-205 (411) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 56.3¢ | $602.19 | $593.84 | -$8.35 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $323.32 | $377.21 | +$53.89 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $97.36 | $96.28 | -$1.08 | 51% 442-427 (869) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $44.56 | $39.18 | -$5.38 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
Invested
$1,689.61
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$235.76
Record
50%
206-205 (411)
VeryLucky888Invested
$602.19
Value
$593.84
PnL
-$8.35
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$323.32
Value
$377.21
PnL
+$53.89
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$97.36
Value
$96.28
PnL
-$1.08
Record
51%
442-427 (869)
Invested
$44.56
Value
$39.18
PnL
-$5.38
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.