Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 36¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 54%
$17.9K
$-1.9K
72.6¢ → 35.5¢
-51% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 73.9¢ | $9.3K | $9.6K | +$271.16 | 50% 219-221 (440) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 70.3¢ | $4.7K | $2.6K | $-2.1K | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 Nooserac | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$300 | 52% 5716-5281 (10997) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 72.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$6.46 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 73¢ | $876 | $912 | +$36 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $325.61 | $581.88 | +$256.27 | 57% 1626-1210 (2836) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 61¢ | $385.52 | $388.68 | +$3.16 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $47.47 | $49.4 | +$1.93 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $22.5 | $45.31 | +$22.81 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.04 | -$0.93 | 54% 6048-5126 (11174) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $12.54 | $13.04 | +$0.5 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $14.6 | $11.53 | -$3.07 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $6.05 | -$0.05 | 51% 1285-1225 (2510) |
Invested
$9,317.72
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$271.16
Record
50%
219-221 (440)
Invested
$4,710.31
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
NooseracInvested
$2,700
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$300
Record
52%
5716-5281 (10997)
Invested
$1,338.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.46
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$876
Value
$912
PnL
+$36
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
oieshfn345Invested
$325.61
Value
$581.88
PnL
+$256.27
Record
57%
1626-1210 (2836)
Invested
$385.52
Value
$388.68
PnL
+$3.16
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
RN1<$100Invested
$47.47
Value
$49.4
PnL
+$1.93
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$45.31
PnL
+$22.81
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.04
PnL
-$0.93
Record
54%
6048-5126 (11174)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.54
Value
$13.04
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
$11.53
PnL
-$3.07
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
1285-1225 (2510)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.