Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$163.68
52.1¢ → 89.5¢
+72% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 51¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$121.59 | 52% 5716-5281 (10997) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $503.61 | $342.76 | -$165.11 | 57% 1626-1210 (2836) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.5¢ | $163.11 | $249.74 | +$82.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $340.5 | $93.01 | -$247.49 | |
 us391 | Noavg 50¢ | $350.42 | $332.9 | -$17.52 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
 RN1 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $188.5 | $182.3 | -$6.2 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 57¢ | $143.64 | $142.38 | -$1.26 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $115.92 | $132.3 | +$16.38 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $79.79 | $80.43 | +$0.64 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $99.92 | $66.46 | -$33.46 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $25.02 | $26.81 | +$1.79 | 50% 219-221 (440) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $6.35 | $5 | -$1.35 | 54% 6048-5126 (11174) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $10 | $1.58 | +$0.08 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $2.68 | $1.5 | -$1.18 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
NooseracInvested
$1,771.74
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$121.59
Record
52%
5716-5281 (10997)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$503.61
Value
$342.76
PnL
-$165.11
Record
57%
1626-1210 (2836)
Both legs:
us391Invested
$350.42
Value
$332.9
PnL
-$17.52
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
RN1Invested
$188.5
Value
$182.3
PnL
-$6.2
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$143.64
Value
$142.38
PnL
-$1.26
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$115.92
Value
$132.3
PnL
+$16.38
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$79.79
Value
$80.43
PnL
+$0.64
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$99.92
Value
$66.46
PnL
-$33.46
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$26.81
PnL
+$1.79
Record
50%
219-221 (440)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.35
Record
54%
6048-5126 (11174)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$1.18
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.