Hammarby IF vs. IK Sirius: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$2.1K
-$7
60.8¢ → 61¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 59.6¢ | $898.2 | $873.71 | -$24.49 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
KY Kyn008 | Overavg 62¢ | $875.8 | $819.3 | +$7.06 | 50% 231-233 (464) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $294 | $294 | +$0 | 51% 1360-1299 (2659) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $48.38 | $46.7 | +$2.39 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 36.1¢ | $205.34 | $23.79 | +$7.79 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $2.1 | +$0.25 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
Invested
$898.2
Value
$873.71
PnL
-$24.49
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
Invested
$875.8
Value
$819.3
PnL
+$7.06
Record
50%
231-233 (464)
Invested
$294
Value
$294
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1360-1299 (2659)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$48.38
Value
$46.7
PnL
+$2.39
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$205.34
Value
$23.79
PnL
+$7.79
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.25
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.