Spread: Hammarby IF (-1.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hammarby IF (17%) · Hammarby IF at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Hammarby IF
6
Hammarby IF 17%
$6.3K
$566.34
Research grade
NeutralHammarby IF at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Hammarby IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Hammarby IFavg 43¢ | $4.1K | $4.8K | +$673.82 | 50% 144-143 (287) |
UP UpTheBlues | IK Siriusavg 57¢ | $767.79 | $740.85 | -$26.94 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 VeryLucky888 | IK Siriusavg 56.5¢ | $667.02 | $590.2 | -$76.82 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
 HRTrading<$100 | IK Siriusavg 57¢ | $83.22 | $80.3 | -$0.73 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | IK Siriusavg 57¢ | $69.54 | $67.1 | -$2.44 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | IK Siriusavg 59¢ | $12.98 | $12.1 | -$0.55 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
Invested
$4,139.19
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$673.82
Record
50%
144-143 (287)
Invested
$767.79
Value
$740.85
PnL
-$26.94
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888Invested
$667.02
Value
$590.2
PnL
-$76.82
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$83.22
Value
$80.3
PnL
-$0.73
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$69.54
Value
$67.1
PnL
-$2.44
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$12.1
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.