Will IK Sirius win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $217 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$217.21
-$3.36
87.2¢ → 98.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.7¢ | $139.65 | $137.29 | -$2.37 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $69.66 | $69.66 | +$0 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $8.51 | $7.74 | -$0.77 | 49% 18841-19244 (38085) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.98 | $1.71 | -$0.27 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.65 | $0.7 | +$0.05 | 54% 6137-5210 (11347) |
Invested
$139.65
Value
$137.29
PnL
-$2.37
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$69.66
Value
$69.66
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$8.51
Value
$7.74
PnL
-$0.77
Record
49%
18841-19244 (38085)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$0.27
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
6137-5210 (11347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.