Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Halmstads BK vs. Malmo FF: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.1K
$195.19
50.3¢ → 35¢
-30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 55¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$41.74 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 63.6¢ | $520.45 | $511.41 | -$9.04 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 37¢ | $114.55 | $319.61 | +$205.07 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 35¢ | $45.15 | $100.62 | +$55.47 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $53.76 | $52.92 | -$0.42 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $24.89 | $18.56 | -$14.61 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $8.81 | $9.29 | +$0.48 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
Invested
$1,159.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$41.74
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$520.45
Value
$511.41
PnL
-$9.04
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$114.55
Value
$319.61
PnL
+$205.07
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$45.15
Value
$100.62
PnL
+$55.47
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$53.76
Value
$52.92
PnL
-$0.42
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.89
Value
$18.56
PnL
-$14.61
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.