Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Halmstads BK vs. Malmo FF: O/U 2.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 42¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$110.21

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 41.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares13,524

Combined PnL+$97.21

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,489

Combined PnL-$207.42

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$86.3	48% 129-137 (266)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 59.5¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$40.19	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 59.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$27.67	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
us391CTR	Underavg 40¢	$947.46	$935.62	-$11.84	51% 1646-1580 (3226)
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 58¢	$1.0K	$901.55	-$123.74	50% 206-205 (411)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 58.7¢	$1.0K	$351.01	-$14.26	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 42¢	$131.13	$152.99	+$21.86	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 59.9¢	$60.15	$58.7	-$1.45	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 61¢	$49.06	$48.66	-$0.4	51% 442-427 (869)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494<$100	Overavg 58¢	$39.71	$40.05	+$0.34	54% 1251-1060 (2311)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.85	-$0.05	51% 1282-1219 (2501)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$4	$4.9	+$0.9	58% 28123-20732 (48855)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Under

Invested

$4,409.54

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$86.3

Record

48%

129-137 (266)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,387

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$40.19

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$1,695.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$27.67

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$947.46

Value

$935.62

PnL

-$11.84

Record

51%

1646-1580 (3226)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$1,025.29

Value

$901.55

PnL

-$123.74

Record

50%

206-205 (411)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,022.98

Value

$351.01

PnL

-$14.26

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$131.13

Value

$152.99

PnL

+$21.86

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$60.15

Value

$58.7

PnL

-$1.45

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$49.06

Value

$48.66

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

442-427 (869)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494<$100

Over

Invested

$39.71

Value

$40.05

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

1251-1060 (2311)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1282-1219 (2501)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

28123-20732 (48855)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.