Will Malmo FF win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 95¢ · $548 held · ended Oct 28

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$547.92

Combined PnL

$54.75

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 94.5¢

+42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$432.66

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$87.35

No3 traders

Total Value$115.26

Total Shares1,659

Combined PnL-$32.6

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 58¢	$141.38	$219.44	+$78.06	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
FO foooool	Yesavg 84.5¢	$147.93	$156.66	+$8.73	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 9¢	$141.75	$110.67	-$31.08	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$56	$56.56	+$0.56	58% 28125-20732 (48857)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$4.06	$4.02	-$0.04	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.05	$0.58	-$1.47	54% 6048-5126 (11174)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$141.38

Value

$219.44

PnL

+$78.06

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$147.93

Value

$156.66

PnL

+$8.73

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$141.75

Value

$110.67

PnL

-$31.08

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$56

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

58%

28125-20732 (48857)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.