Will Halmstads BK win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 99.2¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$25.3K

Total Shares32,920

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$634.14

Total Shares10,362

Combined PnL+$132.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 95.6¢	$30.2K	$23.9K	$-6.4K	93% 811-57 (868)
RN1	Noavg 98.1¢	$897.67	$788.96	-$108.71	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80¢	$472.65	$570.99	+$98.34	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$75	$229.69	+$154.69	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$309	$202.13	-$106.87	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$25.2	$123.48	+$98.28	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$49.43	$55.49	+$6.06	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$35.86	$35.81	-$0.05	53% 696-625 (1321)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$42.87	$23.35	-$19.51	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.55	$3.78	-$0.77	54% 6048-5126 (11174)

Momo63

Invested

$30,212.26

Value

$23.9K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

93%

811-57 (868)

RN1

Invested

$897.67

Value

$788.96

PnL

-$108.71

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$472.65

Value

$570.99

PnL

+$98.34

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$229.69

PnL

+$154.69

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$309

Value

$202.13

PnL

-$106.87

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$25.2

Value

$123.48

PnL

+$98.28

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.43

Value

$55.49

PnL

+$6.06

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$35.86

Value

$35.81

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.87

Value

$23.35

PnL

-$19.51

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.77

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.