BK Hacken vs. IFK Goteborg: O/U 3.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $599 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
$598.91
-$16.99
59.1¢ → 98¢
+66% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 59¢ | $330.4 | $548.8 | -$2.8 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 61.2¢ | $21.13 | $33.81 | +$12.68 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $246 | $12 | +$21 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 24.3¢ | $52.17 | $4.3 | -$47.87 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
Invested
$330.4
Value
$548.8
PnL
-$2.8
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$21.13
Value
$33.81
PnL
+$12.68
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$246
Value
$12
PnL
+$21
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$52.17
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$47.87
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.