Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$15.8K
$2.0K
77.9¢ → 92.5¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 77.6¢ | $10.8K | $12.5K | +$1.7K | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$201.3 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
TO totoro3miyazakiCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $505.5 | $777.7 | +$272.2 | 55% 24-20 (44) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 81¢ | $542.7 | $603 | +$60.3 | 74% 1682-594 (2276) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $474.81 | $224.96 | -$249.85 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
IL Illiasca | Noavg 93¢ | $180 | $174.19 | -$5.81 | 65% 284-154 (438) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $50.7 | $58.5 | +$7.8 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $9.5 | $13.58 | +$4.07 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
Invested
$10,752.7
Value
$12.5K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,247.7
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$201.3
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$505.5
Value
$777.7
PnL
+$272.2
Record
55%
24-20 (44)
Invested
$542.7
Value
$603
PnL
+$60.3
Record
74%
1682-594 (2276)
Invested
$474.81
Value
$224.96
PnL
-$249.85
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$180
Value
$174.19
PnL
-$5.81
Record
65%
284-154 (438)
Invested
$50.7
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$7.8
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$4.07
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.