Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 26¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$10.0K
$1.8K
44.8¢ → 25.5¢
-43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 55¢ | $3.0K | $4.1K | +$1.1K | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO totoro3miyazakiCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $2.9K | $3.7K | +$803.75 | 55% 24-20 (44) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $888 | $1.2K | +$272 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Noavg 44¢ | $1.2K | $829.56 | -$347.88 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $315.75 | $127.78 | -$19.82 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56¢ | $50.96 | $65.98 | +$15.02 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $96.64 | $61.81 | -$34.84 | |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 72.1¢ | $33.14 | $30.41 | -$2.73 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.1¢ | $10.49 | $10.24 | -$0.25 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $5.37 | $2.9 | -$2.47 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
Invested
$3,017.85
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$2,920.38
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$803.75
Record
55%
24-20 (44)
VeryLucky888Invested
$888
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$272
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$1,177.44
Value
$829.56
PnL
-$347.88
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$315.75
Value
$127.78
PnL
-$19.82
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.14
Value
$30.41
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$2.47
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.