Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Orgryte IS win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 11¢ · $59 held · ended Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$59.49

Combined PnL

-$4.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.01

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$4.8

No1 trader

Total Value$3.48

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$54.54	$50	-$4.55	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.8	$4.4	-$0.4	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90¢	$3.52	$3.48	-$0.04	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.47	$1.62	+$0.15	54% 4943-4171 (9114)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.54

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.55

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.