Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$164.61

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares21,134

Combined PnL-$442.19

No8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,213

Combined PnL+$606.79

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 95.8¢	$12.2K	$8.7K	$-3.5K	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 66.7¢	$4.4K	$5.0K	+$620.24	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
RN1	Yesavg 26¢	$1.5K	$4.6K	+$3.1K	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 38.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$149.73	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$570.18	$589.66	+$19.48	50% 19451-19817 (39268)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 16¢	$24.52	$139.94	+$115.42	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 62¢	$124.62	$127.64	+$3.02	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$91.5	$95.25	+$3.75	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 22.7¢	$89.35	$41.82	-$47.53	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$5.55	$13.58	+$8.03	76% 4145-1304 (5449)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$4.62	$9.56	+$4.94	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.9	$8.15	+$2.25	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.57	$5.23	+$0.65	50% 33863-33445 (67308)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$12,199.37

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$4,387.3

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$620.24

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,534.98

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$149.73

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$570.18

Value

$589.66

PnL

+$19.48

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$24.52

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$115.42

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$124.62

Value

$127.64

PnL

+$3.02

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$91.5

Value

$95.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$89.35

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$47.53

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$8.03

Record

76%

4145-1304 (5449)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$4.94

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.