Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 30¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$513.7

Smart Money Entry

37.3¢ → 30¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL+$302.39

Under3 traders

Total Value$688.2

Total Shares834

Combined PnL+$211.31

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$140.96	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$6.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.1¢	$413.02	$498.4	+$134.14
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 39¢	$582.63	$829.13	+$246.5	49% 257-266 (523)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 56.2¢	$449.96	$659.29	+$209.33	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 33.7¢	$256.66	$264.45	+$7.79	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 37¢	$102.86	$152.9	+$50.04	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 55¢	$18.65	$20.09	+$1.43	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$14.12	$11.44	-$2.68	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$8.27	$8.82	+$0.55	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$6.29	$7.03	+$0.74	49% 13013-13570 (26583)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,515.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$140.96

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Both legs:

Under$1,150.8853.7¢+$6.83

Over$413.0238.1¢+$134.14

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$582.63

Value

$829.13

PnL

+$246.5

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$449.96

Value

$659.29

PnL

+$209.33

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$256.66

Value

$264.45

PnL

+$7.79

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$102.86

Value

$152.9

PnL

+$50.04

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$18.65

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$1.43

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.12

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$2.68

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.29

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.74

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.