Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (86%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: O/U 2.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 14¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$11.0K
$-1.6K
37.6¢ → 14.5¢
-61% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Overavg 62¢ | $3.8K | $4.9K | +$1.1K | 49% 257-266 (523) |
KC Kch-TempCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $6.7K | $3.4K | $-3.4K | 51% 220-214 (434) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 62¢ | $1.9K | $2.6K | +$716.48 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $94.86 | $94.86 | +$0 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 15.2¢ | $45.73 | $43.52 | -$2.21 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $18.3 | $18.6 | +$0.3 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 61.7¢ | $576.17 | $3.61 | -$7.03 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $3.16 | $1.54 | -$1.62 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
Invested
$3,818.4
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
49%
257-266 (523)
Invested
$6,724.61
Value
$3.4K
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
51%
220-214 (434)
Invested
$1,891.98
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$716.48
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$94.86
Value
$94.86
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$45.73
Value
$43.52
PnL
-$2.21
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
VeryLucky888Invested
$576.17
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$7.03
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$1.62
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.