Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $343 held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$343.41

Combined PnL

$39.83

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$330.41

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$36.28

Under3 traders

Total Value$13

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$3.55

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 83¢	$123.67	$148.85	+$25.18	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
FO foooool	Overavg 90¢	$94.9	$105.45	+$10.55	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 99.2¢	$75.56	$76.11	+$0.55	83% 2681-535 (3216)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$7	$12.4	+$5.4	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$0.76	$0.59	-$0.17	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 15.3¢	$1.69	$0.01	-$1.68	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$123.67

Value

$148.85

PnL

+$25.18

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

foooool

Over

Invested

$94.9

Value

$105.45

PnL

+$10.55

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$75.56

Value

$76.11

PnL

+$0.55

Record

83%

2681-535 (3216)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$5.4

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.69

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.68

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.