Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Degerfors IF, while the market favors Djurgardens IF (88%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Djurgardens IF (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Degerfors IF (30%) · Degerfors IF at 12¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 1

Djurgardens IF88¢Degerfors IF12¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Degerfors IF

Consensus Traders

Degerfors IF 30%

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

-$821.52

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 12¢

-75% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidDegerfors IF at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Degerfors IF

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Djurgardens IF 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Djurgardens IF88%

Degerfors IF12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Degerfors IF3 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares22,620

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Djurgardens IF7 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares15,591

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Degerfors IF — 30%Djurgardens IF — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Degerfors IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDjurgardens IF 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDegerfors IF 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDjurgardens IF 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Djurgardens IF 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Degerfors IFavg 48.9¢	$10.8K	$6.6K	$-4.2K	49% 167-174 (341)
GO GoalLineGhost	Djurgardens IFavg 59.7¢	$4.3K	$6.3K	+$1.9K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
AY ay118	Djurgardens IFavg 51¢	$3.5K	$4.7K	+$1.2K	47% 36-41 (77)
VeryLucky888	Djurgardens IFavg 51.5¢	$618	$816	+$198	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
RO Rocko33	Djurgardens IFavg 70¢	$140.2	$176.25	+$36.05	63% 1197-693 (1890)
HRTrading	Djurgardens IFavg 53.5¢	$103.24	$166.38	+$63.14	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Djurgardens IFavg 51¢	$94.86	$126.48	+$31.62	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
poshposhCTR	Degerfors IFavg 44.7¢	$145.96	$98.02	-$47.94	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Degerfors IFavg 45.5¢	$93.38	$61.59	-$31.79	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Djurgardens IFavg 70¢	$18.9	$23.76	+$4.86	85% 5875-1000 (6875)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Degerfors IF

Invested

$10,798.07

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

GoalLineGhost

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$4,332.3

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

ay118

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$3,499

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

VeryLucky888

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$618

Value

$816

PnL

+$198

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

Rocko33

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$140.2

Value

$176.25

PnL

+$36.05

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

HRTrading

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$103.24

Value

$166.38

PnL

+$63.14

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LeLynxMalynx

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$94.86

Value

$126.48

PnL

+$31.62

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

poshposhCTR

Degerfors IF

Invested

$145.96

Value

$98.02

PnL

-$47.94

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Degerfors IF

Invested

$93.38

Value

$61.59

PnL

-$31.79

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Djurgardens IF

Invested

$18.9

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$4.86

Record

85%

5875-1000 (6875)

Research grade

AvoidDegerfors IF at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Degerfors IF

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Djurgardens IF 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Degerfors IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDjurgardens IF 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDegerfors IF 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDjurgardens IF 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Djurgardens IF 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Degerfors IF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.