Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 94¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
$27.21
97.6¢ → 94.2¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Yesavg 98¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$7.28 | 93% 875-63 (938) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $760.68 | $702.72 | -$57.96 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 15.7¢ | $669.44 | $412.27 | -$257.17 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 15.7¢ | $544.48 | $295.6 | -$248.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 98¢ | $124.96 | $116.67 | -$8.29 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 89¢ | $267 | $296.4 | +$26.7 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 7.1¢ | $169.44 | $217.79 | +$48.36 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $39.99 | $38.97 | -$1.02 | 50% 19439-19808 (39247) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.2¢ | $24.6 | $27.9 | +$3.3 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9.2¢ | $16.61 | $16.74 | +$0.14 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.9 | +$0.43 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
Invested
$4,754.96
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$7.28
Record
93%
875-63 (938)
Invested
$760.68
Value
$702.72
PnL
-$57.96
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$669.44
Value
$412.27
PnL
-$257.17
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Both legs:
Invested
$267
Value
$296.4
PnL
+$26.7
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
RN1CTRInvested
$169.44
Value
$217.79
PnL
+$48.36
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$39.99
Value
$38.97
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
19439-19808 (39247)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$3.3
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$16.74
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.