Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $664 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$663.87
$93.49
61.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR | Noavg 65.5¢ | $356.47 | $419.27 | +$62.79 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $69 | $100 | +$31 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $46 | $77 | +$31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23¢ | $23 | $23 | +$0 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $67.5 | $94.5 | +$27 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $35.25 | $42.63 | +$7.38 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $11.15 | $7.48 | -$3.68 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
Invested
$356.47
Value
$419.27
PnL
+$62.79
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$69
Value
$100
PnL
+$31
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$67.5
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$27
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$35.25
Value
$42.63
PnL
+$7.38
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.15
Value
$7.48
PnL
-$3.68
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.