Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 64%
$2.8K
$80.16
47¢ → 94.5¢
+101% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 63¢ | $843 | $778.7 | -$64.31 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $373.67 | $697.7 | +$136.59 | 57% 1626-1210 (2836) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 34¢ | $453.29 | $493.29 | +$40 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 65.3¢ | $442.61 | $359.74 | -$16.86 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $348.53 | $343.82 | -$4.71 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $95.37 | $91.9 | -$3.47 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $18.46 | $18.6 | +$0.14 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $19.85 | $17.51 | -$2.34 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $8.26 | $3.39 | -$4.87 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $2.81 | $2.85 | +$0.04 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.85 | -$0.05 | 54% 6048-5126 (11174) |
Invested
$843
Value
$778.7
PnL
-$64.31
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
oieshfn345Invested
$373.67
Value
$697.7
PnL
+$136.59
Record
57%
1626-1210 (2836)
Invested
$453.29
Value
$493.29
PnL
+$40
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$442.61
Value
$359.74
PnL
-$16.86
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
RN1CTRInvested
$348.53
Value
$343.82
PnL
-$4.71
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$95.37
Value
$91.9
PnL
-$3.47
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$18.46
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$19.85
Value
$17.51
PnL
-$2.34
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.26
Value
$3.39
PnL
-$4.87
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6048-5126 (11174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.