Degerfors IF vs. Vasteraas SK: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$8.8K
-$197.79
50.9¢ → 52.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | Underavg 50.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$119.66 | 58% 91-66 (157) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$64.1 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$77.72 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$48.82 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $266.56 | $277.44 | +$10.88 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48.7¢ | $363 | $213.75 | +$0.75 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $35 | $37.19 | +$2.19 | 58% 5759-4227 (9986) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $24.39 | $25.41 | +$1.02 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
 Reformedx<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $3.49 | $3.53 | +$0.03 | 52% 788-732 (1520) |
Invested
$3,164.11
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$119.66
Record
58%
91-66 (157)
us391CTRInvested
$2,093.85
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$64.1
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$1,981.95
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$77.72
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
Invested
$1,196
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$48.82
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$266.56
Value
$277.44
PnL
+$10.88
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$363
Value
$213.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$35
Value
$37.19
PnL
+$2.19
Record
58%
5759-4227 (9986)
Invested
$24.39
Value
$25.41
PnL
+$1.02
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Reformedx<$100Invested
$3.49
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
788-732 (1520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.