Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$19.96

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,245

Combined PnL-$1.57

Yes6 traders

Total Value$387.69

Total Shares7,053

Combined PnL+$21.53

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 99.1¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$22.52	93% 811-57 (868)
DR Dreamwire	Noavg 99¢	$742.5	$731.25	-$11.25	83% 2496-515 (3011)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$235.29	$253.68	+$18.38	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 70¢	$199.71	$186.87	-$12.84	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$283.73	$167.47	-$117.64	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$125.98	$128.06	+$0.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$157.75	$39.41	-$118.33
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$59.99	$59.35	-$0.64	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$53.76	$56.56	+$2.8	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$12.46	$13.15	+$0.69	53% 1104-975 (2079)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$3.15	$3.45	+$0.3	54% 6048-5126 (11174)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.51	$1.51	-$0	50% 24379-23989 (48368)

Momo63

Invested

$6,153.33

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$22.52

Record

93%

811-57 (868)

Dreamwire

Invested

$742.5

Value

$731.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

83%

2496-515 (3011)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$235.29

Value

$253.68

PnL

+$18.38

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$199.71

Value

$186.87

PnL

-$12.84

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$283.73

Value

$167.47

PnL

-$117.64

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

Both legs:

No$125.9891¢+$0.69

Yes$157.7530¢-$118.33

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.99

Value

$59.35

PnL

-$0.64

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.76

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$2.8

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.46

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.