IF Brommapojkarna vs. BK Hacken: O/U 2.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 89¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$17.3K
$2.6K
57¢ → 88.5¢
+55% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $3.3K | $5.3K | +$1.9K | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Overavg 49.6¢ | $5.3K | $5.1K | -$118.06 | 55% 1688-1391 (3079) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 73¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$459.15 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 51.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$247.87 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 51¢ | $440.59 | $444.91 | +$4.32 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 76.3¢ | $169.91 | $190.36 | +$20.45 | 50% 32789-32345 (65134) |
FO foooool | Underavg 64¢ | $125.65 | $163.06 | +$37.4 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $47.23 | $68.39 | +$21.16 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $5.55 | $7.35 | +$1.8 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
RN1Invested
$3,349.51
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$5,252.47
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$118.06
Record
55%
1688-1391 (3079)
Invested
$2,677.42
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$459.15
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$2,593.85
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$247.87
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$440.59
Value
$444.91
PnL
+$4.32
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$169.91
Value
$190.36
PnL
+$20.45
Record
50%
32789-32345 (65134)
Invested
$125.65
Value
$163.06
PnL
+$37.4
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
poshposh<$100Invested
$47.23
Value
$68.39
PnL
+$21.16
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$1.8
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.