IF Brommapojkarna vs. BK Hacken: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 66¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
$582.19
23.5¢ → 65.5¢
+178% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$149.03 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43¢ | $535.15 | $678.05 | +$142.9 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $552 | $558.13 | +$6.13 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 23.2¢ | $386.47 | $965 | +$578.53 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $251.14 | $160.24 | -$90.9 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 81¢ | $201.98 | $104.76 | -$97.21 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.4¢ | $49.16 | $55.48 | +$6.32 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $41.49 | $36 | -$5.49 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $4.54 | $13.09 | +$8.55 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 53.1¢ | $12.45 | $12.78 | +$0.33 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 31.9¢ | $0.74 | $1.02 | +$0.28 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,087.15
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$149.03
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Both legs:
Invested
$386.47
Value
$965
PnL
+$578.53
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$251.14
Value
$160.24
PnL
-$90.9
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$41.49
Value
$36
PnL
-$5.49
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$13.09
PnL
+$8.55
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$12.45
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$0.33
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$0.74
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.