Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold BK Hacken, while the market favors IF Brommapojkarna (88%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: BK Hacken (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BK Hacken (75%) · BK Hacken at 12¢ · $330 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
BK Hacken
4
BK Hacken 75%
1 arb excluded
$330.04
-$19.78
14.1¢ → 12¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBK Hacken at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors IF Brommapojkarna 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | BK Hackenavg 13¢ | $165 | $158.65 | -$6.35 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
FO foooool<$100 | IF Brommapojkarnaavg 70¢ | $100 | $71.43 | -$28.57 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | IF Brommapojkarnaavg 67¢ | $55.68 | $59.25 | -$0.86 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
| └ IF Brommapojkarna leg | IF Brommapojkarnaavg 67¢ | $41.54 | $37.82 | -$2.79 | |
| └ BK Hacken leg | BK Hackenavg 33¢ | $14.14 | $21.43 | +$1.93 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | BK Hackenavg 30¢ | $21.43 | $35.71 | +$14.29 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | BK Hackenavg 33¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$0.85 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$165
Value
$158.65
PnL
-$6.35
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$100
Value
$71.43
PnL
-$28.57
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$55.68
Value
$59.25
PnL
-$0.86
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.43
Value
$35.71
PnL
+$14.29
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.