Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will BK Hacken win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 42¢ · $35K held · ends Oct 28

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

Total Value

$35.1K

Combined PnL

$403.63

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 41.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares54,255

Combined PnL+$686.4

Yes9 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares21,391

Combined PnL-$282.77

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 40.3¢	$21.7K	$22.4K	+$637.13	48% 129-137 (266)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 59.5¢	$8.7K	$8.6K	-$152.13	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 60.5¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$82.86	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 60.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$44.03	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
HRTrading	Yesavg 59¢	$417.93	$414.75	-$3.6	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 35¢	$105.31	$148.93	+$43.63	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$38.06	$37.73	-$0.32	55% 1688-1389 (3077)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$37.24	$36.92	-$0.32	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$25.89	$26.55	+$0.66	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$16.19	$16.06	-$0.13	63% 1075-624 (1699)
LZ lzh1CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$10.66	$14.66	+$4	43% 451-602 (1053)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$4.39	$6.03	+$1.65	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$5.2	$5.16	-$0.04	53% 1103-975 (2078)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$21,736.45

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$637.13

Record

48%

129-137 (266)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$8,703.66

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$152.13

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,459

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$82.86

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$1,167.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$44.03

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$417.93

Value

$414.75

PnL

-$3.6

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$105.31

Value

$148.93

PnL

+$43.63

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.06

Value

$37.73

PnL

-$0.32

Record

55%

1688-1389 (3077)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.24

Value

$36.92

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.89

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.06

PnL

-$0.13

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

lzh1CTR<$100

Invested

$10.66

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$4

Record

43%

451-602 (1053)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1103-975 (2078)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.