Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

IF Brommapojkarna vs. BK Hacken: Both Teams to Score

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 23¢ · $679 held · ended Oct 28

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$678.96

Combined PnL

-$67.51

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 22.5¢

-62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$343.7

Total Shares541

Combined PnL+$120.6

Yes2 traders

Total Value$335.26

Total Shares843

Combined PnL-$188.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 41.3¢	$218.65	$336.55	+$117.9	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 59¢	$453.9	$286.86	-$167.04	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$69.48	$48.41	-$21.07	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$4.45	$7.15	+$2.7	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$218.65

Value

$336.55

PnL

+$117.9

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$453.9

Value

$286.86

PnL

-$167.04

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.48

Value

$48.41

PnL

-$21.07

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$2.7

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.