Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$33.51
82¢ → 80.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $465.4 | $484.4 | +$19 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.4¢ | $338.05 | $344.8 | +$6.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $127.35 | $139.6 | +$12.25 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $347.69 | $374.05 | +$26.36 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $173.72 | $197.85 | +$24.13 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.5¢ | $173.97 | $176.2 | +$2.23 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 82¢ | $243.23 | $219.41 | -$23.82 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $186.7 | $169.94 | -$16.76 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $79.07 | $85.94 | +$6.92 | 57% 1626-1210 (2836) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $6.3 | $6.45 | +$0.15 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.93 | -$0.02 | 54% 6048-5126 (11174) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $1.23 | $1.28 | +$0.04 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1.08 | -$0.03 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$465.4
Value
$484.4
PnL
+$19
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Both legs:
Invested
$347.69
Value
$374.05
PnL
+$26.36
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$243.23
Value
$219.41
PnL
-$23.82
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$186.7
Value
$169.94
PnL
-$16.76
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$79.07
Value
$85.94
PnL
+$6.92
Record
57%
1626-1210 (2836)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
6048-5126 (11174)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.