AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$95.7
64.8¢ → 78¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $993 | $917.79 | -$75.22 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.3¢ | $518.39 | $588.89 | +$70.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70¢ | $474.61 | $328.89 | -$145.72 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 63.2¢ | $469.12 | $549.08 | +$79.96 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 RN1 | Underavg 70.4¢ | $250.24 | $255.78 | +$5.53 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
SA Saber-greed | Underavg 62¢ | $232.57 | $236.33 | -$1.88 | 59% 2512-1739 (4251) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 67.3¢ | $78.12 | $87 | +$8.88 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
LA LaarsYCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $28.21 | $31.41 | +$3.21 | 50% 3361-3312 (6673) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | +$0 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$993
Value
$917.79
PnL
-$75.22
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Both legs:
Invested
$469.12
Value
$549.08
PnL
+$79.96
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
RN1Invested
$250.24
Value
$255.78
PnL
+$5.53
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$232.57
Value
$236.33
PnL
-$1.88
Record
59%
2512-1739 (4251)
Invested
$78.12
Value
$87
PnL
+$8.88
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$28.21
Value
$31.41
PnL
+$3.21
Record
50%
3361-3312 (6673)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.