AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$2.5K
$158.56
82.7¢ → 100¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 80¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$293.86 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 83¢ | $522.9 | $522.9 | +$0 | 50% 6745-6755 (13500) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 97¢ | $266.26 | $236.06 | -$30.19 | 77% 3044-929 (3973) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 20¢ | $271 | $162.6 | -$108.4 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 17.2¢ | $57.44 | $60.11 | +$2.66 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $16.38 | $17.01 | +$0.63 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
RN1Invested
$1,178.4
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$293.86
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$522.9
Value
$522.9
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6745-6755 (13500)
Invested
$266.26
Value
$236.06
PnL
-$30.19
Record
77%
3044-929 (3973)
Invested
$271
Value
$162.6
PnL
-$108.4
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$57.44
Value
$60.11
PnL
+$2.66
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$16.38
Value
$17.01
PnL
+$0.63
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.