Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 48¢ · $384 held · ends Oct 27

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$384.13

Combined PnL

-$1.43

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 48¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$332.12

Total Shares692

Combined PnL+$0

No2 traders

Total Value$52.01

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$1.43

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$277.13	$277.13	+$0	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$54.99	$54.99	+$0	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 53¢	$49.29	$48.36	-$1.39	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
KY Kyn008<$100	Noavg 52¢	$3.68	$3.65	-$0.04	50% 215-218 (433)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$277.13

Value

$277.13

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.99

Value

$54.99

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$48.36

PnL

-$1.39

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Kyn008<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

215-218 (433)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.