Will AIK vs. IF Elfsborg end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $363 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$363.03
$26.92
72.4¢ → 51.5¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Noavg 70.7¢ | $162.9 | $153.26 | -$9.64 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $69.76 | $105.47 | +$35.71 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $58.87 | $58.36 | -$0.51 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $35.45 | $35.91 | +$0.45 | 58% 1600-1180 (2780) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $8.16 | $9.08 | +$0.92 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $0.97 | $0.96 | -$0.01 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
Invested
$162.9
Value
$153.26
PnL
-$9.64
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$69.76
Value
$105.47
PnL
+$35.71
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$58.87
Value
$58.36
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$35.45
Value
$35.91
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
1600-1180 (2780)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.16
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$0.92
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.