Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AIK vs. IF Elfsborg: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$1.3K
$211.01
35.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 35¢ | $439.67 | $722.31 | +$282.64 | 51% 3887-3802 (7689) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $480.21 | $330.89 | -$149.32 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $123.42 | $191.79 | +$68.36 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $28.59 | $39.97 | +$11.38 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $0.91 | $0.93 | +$0.02 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $2.08 | $0 | -$2.08 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$439.67
Value
$722.31
PnL
+$282.64
Record
51%
3887-3802 (7689)
VeryLucky888Invested
$480.21
Value
$330.89
PnL
-$149.32
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$123.42
Value
$191.79
PnL
+$68.36
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$28.59
Value
$39.97
PnL
+$11.38
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$0
PnL
-$2.08
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.