Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Spartak Trnava win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 46¢ · $656 held · ended Oct 31

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$655.96

Combined PnL

$37.09

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 45.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$467.46

Total Shares882

Combined PnL+$4.81

No2 traders

Total Value$188.5

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$32.28

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 54.3¢	$326	$318	-$8	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 44.9¢	$152.87	$185.78	+$32.91	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 55.9¢	$64.37	$61.07	-$3.3	65% 1708-928 (2636)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$53.53	$53.53	-$0	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$18.74	$34.86	+$16.11	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.35	$2.73	-$0.63	54% 6286-5324 (11610)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$326

Value

$318

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$152.87

Value

$185.78

PnL

+$32.91

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.37

Value

$61.07

PnL

-$3.3

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.53

Value

$53.53

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.74

Value

$34.86

PnL

+$16.11

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.