FC Spartak Trnava vs. KFC Komárno: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$1.3K
$88.57
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 48¢ | $760.92 | $1.0K | +$253.64 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 56.1¢ | $366.83 | $235.37 | -$131.46 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51¢ | $134.74 | $46.54 | -$16.21 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 51.1¢ | $46.26 | $32.56 | -$13.7 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.5¢ | $11.13 | $12.33 | +$1.2 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Underavg 60.5¢ | $12.1 | $7.2 | -$4.9 | 77% 3315-1006 (4321) |
us391Invested
$760.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$253.64
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
Invested
$366.83
Value
$235.37
PnL
-$131.46
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$134.74
Value
$46.54
PnL
-$16.21
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$46.26
Value
$32.56
PnL
-$13.7
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$1.2
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$4.9
Record
77%
3315-1006 (4321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.