Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-08-08?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$1.5K
$49.86
63.4¢ → 62¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $623.63 | $655.79 | +$32.47 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $651.74 | $642.41 | -$6.79 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 34.2¢ | $139.44 | $159.15 | +$19.72 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $35.24 | $36.17 | +$0.93 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $17.42 | $17.96 | +$0.54 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $16.98 | $17.68 | +$0.7 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $11.43 | $12.06 | +$0.63 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.5¢ | $3.65 | $5.7 | +$2.05 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $1.04 | $0.65 | -$0.39 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$623.63
Value
$655.79
PnL
+$32.47
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$651.74
Value
$642.41
PnL
-$6.79
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$139.44
Value
$159.15
PnL
+$19.72
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$35.24
Value
$36.17
PnL
+$0.93
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$17.42
Value
$17.96
PnL
+$0.54
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$16.98
Value
$17.68
PnL
+$0.7
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$11.43
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$0.63
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$2.05
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.39
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.